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Quote of the day: A Big Bang led to star being born.

WELCOME new member AMaizawing (April 03, 2020)


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Iran...
They don't seem to fear sanctions? What is that assumption based on?
Sanctions were reimposed in Nov 2018... https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center.../iran.aspx
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Yes, sanctions were reimposed, AND they still shot down our drone, and probably mined those ships.

So, would you say sanctions had much of a limiting influence on their bad behavior here? Would more sanctions be likely to induce them to pay us for the drone? Or will they claim it was in their territory and ignore whatever we do?

No, I don't think they fear our imposition of more sanctions as the ones already in place seemed not to deter them.

They MIGHT pay us IF we removed the sanctions, maybe. Maybe not. Too much of a quid pro quo to save face.

Iran wants to annoy us short of catching a massive retaliatory strike. They know they can influence oil prices with a handful of asymmetric attacks on tankers. They might resort to mines next, again, not the limpet kind, the kind under water.
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This is all to create a temporary bump in oil prices? Do you have a LINK?
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Remember Iran took 10 US sailors in Jan 2016. Sanctions were lifted, 1.7 billion was transferred, and Iran received $400 million... the sailors were released. Not a peep from them until ~6 months after the re-imposition of sanctions.

It's more plausible what we see is tantamount to a child throwing a tantrum because they've been told "No" in the checkout line vs this is Iran's strategy to increase oil prices.
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Do you see some other reason Iran would try and impair the flow of oil tankers through the Straits?

Have they done stuff like this before in history? (Yes, they have.)

What happened with oil prices when these attacks became public knowledge?

What would happen if these attacks became commonplace and tanker traffic through the Straits was limited or stopped?
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Do you have a link supporting your assertion Iran's attacks is their strategy to increase oil prices?

According to you, what day did information about attacking tankers become public? Which incident are we discussing?

What would happen if? Another hypothetical, so hypothetically speaking, the Straights would be quickly reopened.
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What other reasons would Iran have for attacking oil tankers in the STRAITS?

(Or anywhere else.)
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attention. Like Kim tossing missiles into the Sea of Japan.
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(06-21-2019, 02:47 PM)Alabuckeye Wrote: attention.  Like Kim tossing missiles into the Sea of Japan.

The good kind of attention, or the bad?  OK, they have attention, does that benefit them at all?

They appeared to be on the precipice of losing some assets yesterday.

They are taking a RISK here, so what would be their hoped for reward?  

It is possible this was a "rogue commander" who did it for his own reasons ....
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We've had 2 incidents now.

It would appear that the mining incident involving 2 freighters is the more 'planned' operation and likely had official clearance.

It would appear that the 'drone shooting' incident COULD have been a mistake.

Does the attention benefit them? Depends. Kim routinely worked the attention in the past for financial relief of some kind. Bribery or the parent saying "if you are good I'll give you a toy" mentality.

I have no clue what Iran is aiming for.

Could just be a play for status......
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There were incidents last week involving attacks on freighters also.

Iran is risking a lot for a very very uncertain reward.

But if they can nudge oil prices higher with threats of more, they benefit.
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what's interesting about this is that they have 'less' power to impact prices..... OPEC's control seems to be at an all time low, SA is not going to back them and would likely increase production just to spite them, and the US is a net exporter.

it's hard to break long standing patterns of thinking though.
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