Trump has shot at taking Minnesota in next election

[zigbee]

Razor thin loss last election, with Gary Johnson getting 120,000 votes, which won't happen this time.   No republican has won Minnesota since Nixon did in 1972.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2020-soc...in-haskins

[ScarletHayes]

With the Libertarians essentially committing suicide with Johnson and Weld in 2016, where do those votes go?  Some will stay home, but my hunch is that Trump gets the majority of them.  I mean these are Libertarians.  Sure many of them buy into the silly notion of open borders (against Trump), but they sure as hell aint socialists either.

[maize]

The 1 state Reagan lost in 1984. I doubt we win that. I wasn't alive, but find I find that landslide election incredible.

[lrrps21]

The 1 state Reagan lost in 1984. I doubt we win that. I wasn't alive, but find I find that landslide election incredible.

3 of my childhood friends wrote LRRPS in as a write in candidate. I think I had more votes than Mondale/Ferraro.

The people of MN voted for Mondale hoping to get him out of the state.

Lou Holtz was the Head coach for the Gophers in 1984.

[ScarletHayes]

The 1 state Reagan lost in 1984. I doubt we win that. I wasn't alive, but find I find that landslide election incredible.

Try to wrap your head around that for like a microsecond.  That means Reagan won: NY, CT, CA, Mass, etc...   Think about that.  Yeah, yeah, we were a "differnt" country back then, but the N East was still reliably liberal.  

For lack of a better word, a Tea Party guy won the liberal NE.  Not a "moderate" in the traditional sense at all.  "They" keep telling us that we need to nominate Bushes, Romneys and McCains.  Really?

[zigbee]

The 1 state Reagan lost in 1984. I doubt we win that. I wasn't alive, but find I find that landslide election incredible.

Try to wrap your head around that for like a microsecond.  That means Reagan won: NY, CT, CA, Mass, etc...   Think about that.  Yeah, yeah, we were a "differnt" country back then, but the N East was still reliably liberal.  

For lack of a better word, a Tea Party guy won the liberal NE.  Not a "moderate" in the traditional sense at all.  "They" keep telling us that we need to nominate Bushes, Romneys and McCains.  Really?

Things were completely different back in the 1980s.   You didn't have the BS over illegals, or sanctuary cities/states, worrying over who is gay or not, calling people racists every chance, or the deep state corruption to the extent we have today.  Hell, you didn't have the activist judges either.

[Syncro]

Someone may correct me, but I believe Reagan didn't even visit Minnesota out of respect for Mondale.

RR knew he was going to smoke Walter so it didn't matter either way.

Had RR even bothered to try in MN, he probably would've gone 50/50

[cincydawg]

I think the battle will be for PA/WI/MI again, plus OH/FL.

If anyone takes all five, it's theirs.

[JamesWright]

The last time I looked, you could give Trump 8 points right off the bat in every state and he'd still lose. Think about that. I picked 8 points because the Ohio state polling was that far off the mark. It wasn't nearly that far off in other states, but just to be really conservative I used it.

No way Minnesota goes for Trump. Either Trump loses big in the electoral college, or if it's a close race, it could be the first election where Ohio loses its status as a bellwether.

Interestingly, there is a not-too-far-fetched scenario where the election is actually tied. Wouldn't that be something? Nancy Pelosi announcing the next president after the House votes?

[JamesWright]

At this point I think it's going to be either Warren or Harris. Warren will get Bernie's votes and Harris will take the Biden votes eventually.

[ScarletHayes]

At this point I think it's going to be either Warren or Harris. Warren will get Bernie's votes and Harris will take the Biden votes eventually.

I'm rooting for Gabbard.  Fwiw I mean that sincerely.  I obviously have some major disagreements with her, but she seems more than qualified and definitely on top of her game.  She has her ***** together and, yeah, she's hot too (sadly, yes, that matters in a general election).

I could definitely at least tolerate a Gabbard presidency.

[3rdgensooner]

I thought the nation had gone insane electing Trump. If it elects Liawatha that will certainly confirm my impression. It doesn't even bear thinking about. Could you imagine the economic destruction?

[cincydawg]

Warren would find herself unable to get much done unless the Senate goes Dem and they nuke the filibuster rule across the board.

As for MN, I doubt it goes for Trump, but to claim he has zero chance of taking it is absurd. We're over a year from the election. These polls are going to shift all over the place as the Dems find a candidate, and then Trump zeroes in on one target.

I agree Gabbard would be toughest to target with success. She's cheerful, not morose. People like cheerful, and pretty. Warren is morose. Biden is goofy.

[Beastdog]

Warren would find herself unable to get much done unless the Senate goes Dem and they nuke the filibuster rule across the board.

As for MN, I doubt it goes for Trump, but to claim he has zero chance of taking it is absurd.  We're over a year from the election.  These polls are going to shift all over the place as the Dems find a candidate, and then Trump zeroes in on one target.

I agree Gabbard would be toughest to target with success.  She's cheerful, not morose.  People like cheerful, and pretty.  Warren is morose.  Biden is goofy.

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.5 points in 2016. 1.5 points. To claim he has no chance in 2020 is just plain old stupid. I would say the "Ilhan Omar factor" (many Minn swing voters are undoubtedly turned off by electing an American hating radical into the Congress) probably adds 1-2 points for Trump. Add to that incumbency, the incredible economy, and peace abroad and Trump is the clear favorite to win this state next November. At this point.

If Pocahontas is nominated, Trump may win 40 States. If it's Sleepy Joe, maybe only around 37 or so.

[lrrps21]

Warren would find herself unable to get much done unless the Senate goes Dem and they nuke the filibuster rule across the board.

As for MN, I doubt it goes for Trump, but to claim he has zero chance of taking it is absurd.  We're over a year from the election.  These polls are going to shift all over the place as the Dems find a candidate, and then Trump zeroes in on one target.

I agree Gabbard would be toughest to target with success.  She's cheerful, not morose.  People like cheerful, and pretty.  Warren is morose.  Biden is goofy.

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.5 points in 2016. 1.5 points. To claim he has no chance in 2020 is just plain old stupid. I would say the "Ilhan Omar factor" (many Minn swing voters are undoubtedly turned off by electing an American hating radical into the Congress) probably adds 1-2 points for Trump. Add to that incumbency, the incredible economy, and peace abroad and Trump is the clear favorite to win this state next November. At this point.

If Pocahontas is nominated, Trump may win 40 States. If it's Sleepy Joe, maybe only around 37 or so.

IA, MI, PA, WI, OH are turning more red. The key demographic is whites without college degrees.
These folks were 67% of Trumps base in the primaries and 60% in the general.

Crooked Granny lost to whites without degrees so badly that even if she won Ozero's turn
out of blacks she still would have lost. This was the result of white folks without degrees
defecting to Trump. Keep this in mind when people toss Mrs Ozero or Orca's name in the hat.

During the primaries Trump won 150 counties where at least 8 in 10 people were white and
without a college degree. This demographic hasn't changed in WI, IA, PA, MI, OH.

That's 200 counties who voted by 20 points or higher for democrats since Mondale then switched
and voted for Trump by a 20 point margin. Doesn't look good for the democrats hoping these folks flip back
for Booker, Harris, Biden, Liawotha, or any other clown. This is why the left candidates have been promising free everything for everybody.
They are in panic mode.

More bad news for democrats, the two states that tend to decide the general election - Florida and Ohio - are solidly red.
In 2018 Ohio elected a republican Governor, Lt.Governor, AG, and control the house. Florida won the governorship and senate.
This when the democrats did well in the 2018 mid terms. Florida and Ohio are key and solidly red.

Conclusion: Best bet for the dems is to find a 'bob dole' for the 2020 and start looking for a centrist type for the 2024.